I told her not yet. I told her to give it a few weeks.

👉 View the full interactive market report here — county by county data, the Friedman Signal, and this week’s heat map.

Search Homes

Check Your Home's Value

This week, I’d have told her to go look again. Statewide, closings dropped to 530 homes, down sharply from 782 the week before, the quietest week this report has tracked. Price reductions ticked up to 1,158 listings. And the median sold price fell to $405,000, down $35,000 from two weeks ago. For a buyer like Priya, that’s not a red flag. That’s the market finally exhaling.

Here’s the part that actually matters for her, though: pending contracts barely moved, holding at 371, almost identical to last week’s 369. That tells me buyers who are ready are still closing deals, at a normal, unhurried pace, average days on market held rock steady at 30. Nobody’s panicking. Nobody’s rushing a $460,000 offer on a $410,000 house because eleven other people are in line behind them. The nine offer bidding war Priya lost in June is a lot less likely to happen to her this week.

The 30year fixed did climb again, to 6.69%, a sixth straight weekly increase. That part isn’t good news, and I won’t pretend it is. But rate and competition are two different fights, and this week, the competition fight got a little easier to win. If you’re a buyer who got burned out by bidding wars a few weeks ago, this is the week I’d tell you to start looking again, not because it’s cheap, but because for the first time in a while, you might actually get to negotiate instead of just hoping.

$4.17 Million Apart

The high end: a custom Craftsman estate at 3443 Gamber Rd in Finksburg, right in Carroll County, hit the market this week for $4,200,000. Built in 2024, it’s nearly 14,000 square feet between the main house and a fully finished detached guest house, with a home theater, a fitness center with a sauna, a private pond, and a full house generator. This is the kind of estate that reminds you Carroll County isn’t just a fast moving market, it’s home to some of the most serious custom builds in the state.

The low end: a fire damaged rowhome at 717 Linnard St in Baltimore’s Edgewood neighborhood is heading to online auction with an opening bid of $30,000. Vacant, needs a full renovation, and it’s a clear fix and flip or fix and hold play. Bidding runs August 22 through 27.

$4.17 million apart. Same state, same week.

The Numbers, Fast

• 🏡 Homes Sold: 530, down 32.2% from 782 last week

• 🆕 New Listings: 1,154 statewide

• ✍️ Pending Contracts: 371, essentially flat from 369, this is the number that tells the real story this week

• 💰 Median Sold Price: $405,000, down 8.0% from $440,000

• ⏱️ Average Days on Market: 30 days, unchanged from last week

• 🏷️ Price Reductions: 1,158, up modestly from 1,141

• 📊 Sold Price ÷ List Price: 100.0% (median), homes are still closing right at asking

• 📈 30 Year Mortgage Rate: 6.69%, a sixth straight weekly increase

A quick data note: this week’s average sold to list ratio in the raw data was thrown off by a single record with an obvious entry error, an $8 million “sold price” on a home that clearly wasn’t worth that. I used the median instead, which isn’t distorted by that outlier. Flagging it rather than quietly using a number I don’t trust.

Fastest counties this week: Frederick (20 days, 55 closings) is the real story here, a genuine jump in pace backed by real volume. Caroline County technically posted 11 days, but on just 4 closings, that’s too small a sample to read much into.

Slowest counties: Allegany and Dorchester are tied at 67 days each, more than double the statewide pace.

Deep Dive: The Stat That Doesn’t Match the Headlines

Here’s something that goes against almost everything you’d expect from a week that just posted a 32% drop in closings: Maryland is one of the only states in the country where the median list price sits below the median sold price.

A recent six month statewide analysis found Maryland homes closed at a median of $415,000 against a median list price of $401,990, a gap of $13,010, roughly 3.1%, with sold prices running above what sellers asked. In most states, that spread runs the other way, sellers ask more than buyers end up paying. Maryland runs the opposite direction, which is the statistical fingerprint of competitive, multiple offer bidding still happening quietly underneath the market’s day to day headlines. That same analysis found Maryland’s pending to active ratio sitting around 0.62, meaning roughly 62 homes are under contract for every 100 active listings, among the strongest demand readings of any state measured.

One honest caveat: that figure comes from a different six month dataset than this week’s weekly MLS pull, so it’s not a direct week to week comparison to the numbers above. But it explains something real happening underneath this week’s data: even as closings dropped hard, this week’s own sold to list ratio held at exactly 100%. Correctly priced Maryland homes are still selling for precisely what they’re asking, in a week where the headline number looked soft.

One Thing I’d Do This Week

Buying? Don’t read this week’s slower closings as a market falling apart. Pending contracts and days on market both held steady, meaning the deals happening are still moving at a normal pace. With 1,158 listings carrying a price cut, there’s real room to negotiate right now.

Selling? Price to $405,000, this week’s real median, not the $440,000 high point from two weeks ago. The good news: homes are still closing right around 100% of list price, precision pricing is still working, just off a lower number than it was two weeks ago.

Investing? Watch Frederick County. Jumping to a 20 day average with 55 closings in one week isn’t noise, that’s real momentum in a county that’s usually mid pack.

Bonus From My Kitchen: Chicken Bacon Ranch Twice Baked Potatoes

Market reports aren’t the only thing I’m cooking up this week. This one’s become a regular in our house, easy, crowd pleasing, and dangerously addictive.

Ingredients (serves 6)

• 4 pounds russet potatoes (4-6 potatoes)

• 1 pound boneless skinless chicken breast

• 1 tablespoon ranch seasoning mix

• 4 ounces block cream cheese

• 3 slices cooked bacon, crumbled

• 1 cup freshly grated sharp cheddar

• Optional toppings: extra bacon, chopped chives, a ranch drizzle, blue cheese crumbles

How to Make It

Slow cooker filling: Add the chicken to a slow cooker, sprinkle with ranch seasoning, and place the block of cream cheese on top. Cover and cook on high for 2.5 to 3 hours, or low for 4 to 5 hours. Shred the chicken right in the pot, then stir in most of the bacon and a cup of shredded cheddar.

Bake the potatoes: Rub the potatoes with olive oil, salt, and pepper, and bake at 425°F for 45 minutes to an hour until fork tender. Let them rest until cool enough to handle.

Stuff and broil: Slice each potato open lengthwise, fluff the flesh with a fork, and season with salt and pepper. Load each one with the chicken filling, top with extra cheddar and bacon, then broil for a few minutes until melted and bubbly.

Finish: Garnish with fresh chives and a ranch drizzle, and serve warm.

Tip: this filling also works great as a sandwich filling or dip if you have leftovers. Store potatoes and filling separately in the fridge for up to 3 days.

Got a Priya style story of your own, lost a bidding war a few weeks back and wondering if now’s the time to try again? Just reply to this email, I read every one.

Have Questions? Let’s Talk.

📞 443-789-3101 | Kyle@Friedmanreteam.com
8115 Maple Lawn Blvd. #350 Fulton, MD 20759

Schedule a call

Search Homes

Check Your Home's Value

I don’t think Maryland buyers suddenly stopped caring about their monthly payment. I think what we’re actually seeing is a backlog finishing its work. Contracts that were written a month ago, back when rates were a little friendlier, are closing on schedule now. The buyers who are still out there shopping seem less interested in waiting the market out and more interested in beating whatever the rate does next week.

Nowhere was that more obvious than Carroll County, my home turf. Average days on market dropped to just 17 days, down from 19 the week before, while closings jumped to 47, up from 34. Fewer days on market and more closings, at the same time, in the same county. That combination doesn’t happen by accident. That happens when buyers are moving with real urgency and sellers are pricing like they know it.

So here’s my honest read heading into August: this isn’t a market that’s ignoring rates. It’s a market that hasn’t caught up to them yet. The homes closing this week were financed in a slightly different environment than the one we’re in right now. What happens once that backlog clears out is the question next week actually has to answer.

View the full interactive report here

The $3.89 Million Spread

Every week I like to show you the two ends of the Maryland market, because nothing tells the story faster than putting them side by side.

The high end: a 102-acre farmhouse on Bailiff Road in North East, up in Cecil County, hit the market this week for $3,900,000. It’s so much property, spanning so many possible uses, that the listing agent didn’t even try to squeeze it into one MLS category. It’s listed three separate times, as Farm, as Land, and as Residential, under three different MLS numbers, because a single listing type genuinely couldn’t capture it. That’s the kind of property that reminds you why I got into this niche in the first place. Farm and land deals aren’t just “big houses,” they’re a different animal entirely, with their own zoning, their own comps, and their own buyer pool.

The low end: a two-story rowhome on W Lombard Street in Baltimore’s Shipley Hill neighborhood is heading to online auction with an opening bid of $10,000. Same owner for more than 30 years, move in ready, 2 beds and 1 bath. Bidding opens August 31st and closes September 2nd, and whoever wins pays a 6% buyer’s premium on top. That’s the kind of listing that makes you remember Maryland still has real entry points for patient buyers willing to do their homework and show up to an auction.

$3.89 million apart. Same state, same week.

The Numbers, Fast

Here’s the rundown if you just want the stats:

• 🏡 Homes Sold: 782, up 27.2% from 615 last week

• 🆕 New Listings: 1,225 statewide

• ✍️ Pending Contracts: 369, down slightly from 382 (this is the number to watch, more on that below)

• 💰 Median Sold Price: $440,000, up 5.8% from $415,000

• ⏱️ Average Days on Market: 30 days, down from 31

• 🏷️ Price Reductions: 1,141, up modestly from 1,101

• 📊 Sold Price ÷ List Price: 101.2%, down from a hot 104.8% the week before

• 📈 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.66%, a fifth straight weekly increase

The one number that gives me pause is pending contracts. They held basically flat this week, even as closings surged. That tells me this week’s strong number came from an existing pipeline finishing up, not a fresh wave of new buyers signing contracts. If pending contracts don’t pick back up next week, this rebound could turn out to be a one week story rather than a trend.

Fastest counties this week: Carroll (17 days), Baltimore County (20 days), Harford (21 days), Cecil (25 days), Anne Arundel (26 days).

Slowest counties: Dorchester (74 days), Caroline (70 days), Garrett (58 days), Baltimore City (50 days, up from 41 last week), Charles (48 days).

Local Spotlight: Farm Fair Season Is Here

If you’re anywhere near Cockeysville this weekend, the Hereford Junior Farm Fair hits its 80th year on Saturday, August 1st, 9:00 am to 3:30 pm, at the Baltimore County Agricultural Center. It’s a small, community run fair, kids showing livestock, 4 H projects, the whole small town farm fair experience, and honestly it’s a nice reminder of exactly why farm and equestrian property in this part of Maryland holds the value it does. People aren’t just buying acreage up here, they’re buying into a way of life that whole communities still show up for on a Saturday morning.

Down in Cecil County, the Cecil County Fair just wrapped up its 9 day run on August 1st at the Fair Hill Fairgrounds, right around the corner from this week’s $3.9 million farmhouse listing. And if you want to circle a date, the big one is coming: the Maryland State Fair kicks off August 27th at the Timonium fairgrounds and runs in weekend stretches through mid September. If you’ve never been, block off an afternoon. Funnel cake, livestock judging, and a genuinely good look at what makes this state’s agricultural roots still matter in 2026.

Consider that your permission slip to take a Saturday off from house hunting

The Deep Dive: Your Tax Bill Is Already Written

Here’s something most Maryland homeowners in Baltimore City, Baltimore County, and Harford County don’t know yet, but should.

The state just finished its 2026 property reassessment for what SDAT calls “Group 2,” which covers exactly those three jurisdictions along with several others. Nearly 789,000 residential and commercial properties statewide got reassessed, and assessed values jumped an average of 12.7%, with residential properties specifically up 13.2%. That’s actually a slowdown from the 20% jumps we saw the last two cycles, but it’s still real money.

Here’s the part that connects directly to this week’s report: those are the exact three counties putting up the fastest days-on-market and highest closing volumes in Maryland right now. Baltimore County, Harford, and Baltimore City combined for 352 closings this week alone. Owner occupants get some protection here (assessment increases are capped at 10% a year and phased in over three years), but if you own a rental or investment property in one of these counties, the increase hits closer to full strength since you don’t qualify for the Homestead Tax Credit.

If you own in any of these three counties, don’t wait for the tax bill to show up. Go check your SDAT notice now.

One Thing I’d Do This Week

Buying? Get moving on the reduced-price pool. There are 1,141 active listings statewide already carrying a price cut, and in fast counties like Carroll and Harford, that inventory isn’t going to sit around waiting for you. Every week rates climb is a week your buying power quietly shrinks.

Selling? Price to the real median, $440,000, not to the 104.8% overbidding ratio from two weeks ago. That was the exception. 101.2% is closer to the new normal, and it’s still a great number, it just means precision pricing matters more than it did during the frenzy.

Investing? Baltimore City, Baltimore County, and Harford are quietly building equity through this reassessment cycle while also posting this week’s best sales numbers. If you’re underwriting a deal in any of the three, run your numbers with the new assessed value in mind, not the old one.

Got a home you’re thinking about selling, or want to know what your reassessment notice actually means for your bottom line? Just reply to this email, I read every one.

Have Questions? Let’s Talk.

📞 443-789-3101 | Kyle@Friedmanreteam.com

8115 Maple Lawn Blvd. #350 Fulton, MD 20759

Schedule a call

On July 24th, a private penthouse atop Harborview Towers in Baltimore hit the market for $4,295,000 two combined penthouses on the 26th floor, over 7,000 square feet, offered for the first time in more than two decades, available only by private appointment. A private keyed elevator opens into an exclusive lobby. Italian Carrara marble runs throughout. Seven private outdoor spaces look out over the Baltimore skyline.

Two days earlier, and three miles away, a HUD owned row home on N Ellamont Street listed for $5,000. Exterior viewing only. Interior access strictly prohibited. Sold as is, straight through HUD’s foreclosure process.

Same city. Same week. A $4,290,000 gap between the two.

Interactive Weekly Report

But that’s not really this week’s headline.

The real story: after two weeks of acceleration, Maryland’s market tapped the brakes. Statewide closings dropped to 615 homes, down from 680 the week before. Pending contracts fell 11%, from 429 down to 382. Mortgage rates climbed for a fourth straight week, hitting 6.58% the highest level in nearly a year. And while homes that are priced right are still closing right at asking, sellers who don’t get the number right the first time are increasingly the ones left sitting.

Two weeks of momentum, and now a week of it cooling. That’s the pattern buyers and sellers both need to understand heading into August.

Maryland in 60 Seconds

For the skimmers here’s the whole week in one glance:

• 📉 Friedman Market Momentum Index: 50 / 100 Balanced, Cooling

• 📈 Homes Sold: 615 (down from 680 last week, -9.6%)

• 🏡 Active Listings: 1,193 statewide

• 💰 Median Sold Price: $415,000 (down from $437,950, -5.2%)

• 🏦 30 Year Mortgage Rate: 6.58% (up from 6.55%, 4th straight weekly increase)

• ⏱ Average Days on Market: 31 (up from 28)

• 🏷 Price Reductions: 1,101 listings (down slightly from 1,145)

• 📋 Pending Contracts: 382 (down from 429, -11.0%)

A quick data note: this week’s pull labels statewide inventory as “1,193” but when you add up the active listings across all thirteen counties in this week’s data, they sum to almost exactly that number. So rather than compare it to last week’s “1,292 new listings” figure as if it were the same thing, I’m flagging it here as active inventory instead. Same commitment to not papering over the data gaps as always.

What the Numbers Really Mean

Three things changed this week.

Closings pulled back after their rebound. 615 homes closed statewide, down 9.6% from 680 the week before. Pending contracts fell even further down 11% to 382 which matters more than the closings number itself, because pending contracts are the leading indicator. If that trend holds, next week’s closings could soften again.

Rates are now a four week story, not a one week story. The 30 year fixed climbed to 6.58% as of July 23rd, according to Freddie Mac its fourth consecutive weekly increase and the highest level since August 2025. The 15 year followed the same path, rising to 5.96%. This isn’t a blip anymore. It’s a trend, and it’s starting to show up in the demand numbers.

Precision pricing is still winning but the margin for error just got smaller. Statewide, closed homes sold at a median of exactly 100% of list price, with the average pulled up to 104.8% by a handful of strong performers. At the same time, 1,101 active listings still carry a price cut this week. Translation: sellers who nail the number are doing fine. Sellers who don’t are the ones absorbing the slowdown.

Market Spotlight: Baltimore City & Baltimore County

I don’t have hyperlocal, neighborhood level data for this week’s pull the way I did with Ruxton a couple weeks back so instead of guessing, I’m zooming in on the two Baltimore area markets I do have solid numbers for, and where this week’s most interesting stories actually live.

Baltimore City

Active: 283 · Closed: 107 · Avg. DOM: 41 days

Baltimore City’s pace actually improved this week average days on market dropped from 45 to 41. Closing volume of 107 homes remains the second highest in the state, trailing only Baltimore County. And this is also where both bookends of this week’s price range live: the $4,295,000 penthouse and the $5,000 HUD foreclosure are neighbors, in market terms, illustrating just how wide Baltimore City’s range really is from ultra luxury waterfront towers to entry level foreclosure stock, in the same 41 day average window.

Baltimore County

Active: 234 · Closed: 123 · Avg. DOM: 22 days

Baltimore County closed 123 homes this week, down from 156 the week before. On its own, that reads like a slowdown. But average days on market actually fell too from 26 days to 22. Fewer transactions, but the ones happening are moving faster. That combination lower volume, quicker pace usually points to a tighter, more selective buyer pool rather than a genuinely weakening market.

Bottom line: if you own a home in either market, well priced listings are still moving in three weeks or less. The homes sitting are the ones priced for last month’s market, not this one.

Market Movers of the Week

The numbers people actually want to talk about at dinner:

🏆 Most Expensive Active Listing

100 Harborview Dr #PH3A/3B, Baltimore, MD 21230 $4,295,000

5 beds | 4 full, 2 half baths | 7,362 sq ft | Built 2003

Two combined penthouses on the 26th floor of Harborview Towers. Private keyed elevator, seven private outdoor spaces, offered for the first time in over two decades.

🏠 Least Expensive Active Listing

42 N Ellamont St, Baltimore, MD 2122 $5,000

2 beds | 1 bath | 972 sq ft | Built 1927

A HUD owned rowhome, fee simple (not ground rent), sold strictly as is through HUD Home Store’s foreclosure process. Exterior viewing only interior access is prohibited until sale.

⚡ Fastest Moving County Carroll County 19 day average DOM, 34 closings

🐌 Slowest Moving County Garrett County 108 day average DOM, 6 closings

Friedman Heat Map: This Week’s County Data

Hottest Markets (fastest average days on market)

*Charles County is essentially tied at 28 days with 27 closings.

Cooling Markets (slowest average days on market)

Baltimore County remains the workhorse of the fast moving group no other top 5 county comes close to its 123 closings this week. On the cooling side, Garrett and Caroline are essentially tied for the slowest pace in the state, both averaging well over 100 days to close.

Week Over Week: How Maryland Compares

The headline: closings, pending contracts, and median sold price all pulled back this week after two straight weeks of gains, while mortgage rates extended their climb into a fourth week. The one bright spot homes that do close are closing further above list price than they were last week.

The Friedman Market Momentum Index (FMMI)

SCORE: 50 / 100 Balanced Market, Cooling Momentum

(down from 62 last week)

Demand Score: 45 (down from 65) Closings fell 9.6% and pending contracts dropped 11% the clearest signs of softening buyer momentum this week.

Seller Strength Score: 52 (down from 55) The average sold to list ratio actually strengthened to 104.8%, but 1,101 active listings still carry a price cut, keeping this component in check.

Market Speed Score: 60 (down from 75) Average days on market rose from 28 to 31 a real, if modest, slowdown in pace.

Rate Environment Score: 35 (down from 40) The 30 year fixed hit 6.58% a fourth consecutive weekly increase and the highest level since August 2025.

What this means: Maryland shifted this week from “balanced, holding steady” to “balanced, but losing momentum.” No single number here is alarming on its own but demand, pace, and rates are all now leaning the same direction, and that’s worth watching over the next couple of weeks.

The Friedman Signal™

📉 COOLING

Three straight indicators closings, pending contracts, and rates moved the wrong direction for sellers this week, while median sold price gave back some of last week’s gain. This isn’t a downturn. It’s a market that ran hot for two weeks and is now catching its breath under the weight of a fourth consecutive rate increase.

Watch pending contracts closely heading into next week that 11% drop is the number most likely to show up in closings two to four weeks from now.

Winners & Losers

Winners This Week

• Baltimore County fewer closings, but a faster pace (22 day average DOM, down from 26)

• Carroll & Harford Counties both closing in under 20 days on average

• Precisely priced homes median sold to list ratio held at exactly 100%

Losing Momentum

• Statewide demand closings down 9.6%, pending contracts down 11%

• Rate sensitive buyers four straight weekly increases, now at 6.58%

• Garrett & Caroline Counties both averaging well over 100 days on market

One Thing I’d Do This Week

If I were buying: Move on the reduced price pool now. With 1,101 active listings already carrying a cut and pending contracts falling, there’s real negotiating room but a fourth straight rate increase means that leverage has a shelf life. Don’t wait it out.

If I were selling: Price at the $415,000 statewide median reality, not the $437,950 you might have been expecting two weeks ago. Pending contracts are down 11% buyers have more selection right now, and ambitious pricing is the fastest way to end up in next week’s pricereduction count instead of this week’s closing report.

If I were investing: Baltimore City remains the deepest, most liquid market in the state 283 active listings, 107 closings, and a pace that’s actually improving (down to 41 days from 45). Keep an eye on the HUD and foreclosure pipeline here specifically; the $5,000 Ellamont Street listing is a reminder that below market entry points still exist for patient, well capitalized buyers willing to navigate the process.

Have Questions? Let’s Talk.

📞 443-789-3101 | Kyle@Friedmanreteam.com
8115 Maple Lawn Blvd. #350 Fulton, MD 20759

Schedule a call

This week, the market answered back.

Full Interactive Report

Subscribe now

Maryland closed 680 homes, up from 641 the week before. Baltimore County closed 156 homes a 22.8% jump from the prior week’s 127. New listings statewide eased slightly, from 1,314 down to 1,292. After a week where new supply outran demand, this was the week buyers caught up to it.

That doesn’t mean everything’s smooth. Mortgage rates climbed for a third straight week, landing at 6.55% the highest they’ve been in almost a year. And price reductions statewide hit 1,145, nearly matching the 1,292 new listings that came on the market. For every 100 fresh listings this week, roughly 89 existing ones needed a haircut to stay competitive.

So here’s the honest read: this isn’t a market tipping hard toward buyers or sellers. It’s a market re-settling. Closings caught up. Prices held their ground. But rates are working against affordability, and a lot of sellers are learning the hard way that their spring pricing didn’t survive contact with summer buyers. The listings that avoided that reduction cycle entirely all share one thing they were priced to sell from day one.

Two Ends of the Same Market

Nothing tells that story better than this week’s most expensive and least expensive new listings, both of which hit Maryland MLS within a day of each other.

Most Expensive: 50645 Holly Point Rd, Dameron, MD $7,500,000

A Chesapeake Bay bayfront estate in St. Mary’s County’s St. Jeromes subdivision 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, 3,268 finished square feet, built in 1978 and fully renovated this year. But the house is almost beside the point. The sale includes 6,136 feet of water frontage, a private pier, a sandy beach, a roof deck, a tennis court, and roughly 280 total acres spread across 91 lots in St. Jeromes Shores and 71 lots in Bay Harbor. This is a land assemblage as much as a home sale one of the largest waterfront packages to hit the Maryland market this year.

Least Expensive: 103 Conestoga Rd, Middle River, MD $25,000

At the other end, a 1 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home in Williams Estates, Baltimore County, renovated in 2025. Worth knowing before you get excited about that price tag: this is a ground rent property, not a fee simple sale. The land underneath carries a $1,133/month lease, and park approval is required for any buyer. It’s not a $25,000 house so much as a $25,000 structure sitting on land you’ll pay to use every month.

Together, these two listings span a $7.475 million gap within the same statewide market this week a good reminder that “Maryland real estate” covers an enormous range of products, price points, and ownership structures, sometimes just a county apart.

The Numbers That Defined the Week

Maryland Statewide Week of July 13–19, 2026
--------------------------------------------------------
Homes Sold (Closed)              680
New Listings                   1,292
Price Reductions               1,145
Pending Contracts                429
Median Sold Price            $437,950
Avg. Days on Market               28
Median Days on Market             12
Avg. Sold Price ÷ List Price   101.2%
Median Sold Price ÷ List Price 100.0%
30 Year Mortgage Rate          6.55%
15 Year Mortgage Rate          5.93%

Week Over Week: How Maryland Compares

Metric                        Last Week    This Week    Change
--------------------------------------------------------------
New Listings (Statewide)         1,314        1,292     -22 (-1.7%)
Closed Sales (Statewide)           641          680     +39 (+6.1%)
New Listings Minus Closings       +673         +612      Narrower by 61
Median Sold Price (Statewide) $420,000     $437,950     +$17,950 (+4.3%)
Median Days on Market               12           12      Flat
Avg. Sold Price ÷ List Price     100.5%       101.2%     +0.7 points
30 Year Mortgage Rate             6.49%        6.55%     +6 basis points
15 Year Mortgage Rate             5.82%        5.93%     +11 basis points

The gap between new listings and closings narrowed to 612 homes this week, down from 673 the week before a small but real step toward balance. One note on Baltimore County specifically: this week’s county level pull only gave us closed sales and days on market, not new listings or median price, so I’m not going to guess at numbers I don’t have. That detail comes back next week.

The Friedman Market Momentum Index: 62 / 100 Balanced Market

This week’s score reflects four of the five usual components. Active listing counts and months of supply data weren’t available in this week’s data pull, so rather than estimate the Inventory piece, I pulled it out and reweighted the rest:

Demand (reweighted 33%)          Score: 65
  Closings up 6.1% statewide, 429 homes under contract

Seller Strength (reweighted 27%) Score: 55
  101.2% avg sold to list, but 1,145 price cuts this week

Market Speed (reweighted 27%)    Score: 75
  Median days on market held flat at 12 days

Rate Environment (reweighted 13%) Score: 40
  6.55% third straight weekly rate increase

What it means: Maryland isn’t tilting toward buyers or sellers right now it’s re-settling. Closings caught up, prices held, but rising rates and heavy price cut activity keep this out of “strong seller” territory.

The Surprising Stat of the Week: 88.6%

That’s how close this week’s price reductions (1,145) came to matching new listings (1,292) statewide. Sold prices are still up 4.3% week over week, so this isn’t a market in trouble but it is a sign that a lot of initial list prices are running ahead of what buyers will actually pay. Sellers who price precisely at launch are skipping that reduction cycle entirely.

Featured Spotlight: Ruxton, MD

Ruxton is this week’s hyperlocal focus one of Baltimore County’s premier waterside adjacent enclaves, and a market that swings hard on small sample sizes given its price point.

Extended View (all recorded activity, all statuses)
----------------------------------------------------
Active Listings:              4
Under Contract:               2
Closed:                       22
Expired:                      3
Canceled:                     2
Median Closed Price:          $1,600,000
Median Days on Market:        8 (average 50)
Avg. Sold Price ÷ List Price: 99.0%

Last 30 Days
----------------------------------------------------
Closed:      5 homes, $820,000 – $2,079,500
Under Contract: 2 homes, at $1,995,000 and $2,295,000
Active:      1 home 7807 Overbrook Rd, listed 7/12 at $1,950,000
Avg. time to close on recent sales: ~46 days (range 32–78)

Ruxton is a market of extremes rather than a smooth curve a handful of ultra high end closings sit alongside faster moving properties in the $800K–$1.3M range that closed in a week or less. The median, not the average, tells the real story: at $1,600,000 with just an 8 day median close, well priced Ruxton listings are moving fast despite the eye catching top end numbers.

Friedman Market Heat Map

Hottest Markets (fastest median days on market)

1. Carroll County        19 days   |  46 closed
2. Calvert County         21 days  |  21 closed
3. Baltimore County       26 days  |  156 closed
4. Anne Arundel County    29 days  |  144 closed
5. Frederick County       29 days  |  71 closed

Carroll and Calvert lead on speed, but Baltimore County’s volume 156 closings shows it’s doing the heaviest lifting among the fast moving group this week.

Cooling Markets (longest median days on market)

1. Dorchester County     117 days  |  10 closed
2. Garrett County          74 days |  6 closed
3. Allegany County          70 days | 11 closed
4. Caroline County          51 days | 11 closed
5. Baltimore City           45 days | 111 closed

Baltimore City stands out here 111 closings is far higher than the other cooling markets, meaning this isn’t a thin data point. A 45 day median in the city is worth tracking over the next few weeks.

Buyer Strategy

• Move with intention on well priced homes. Statewide median days on market held at 12, and Ruxton’s sits at just 8 homes priced right are still moving fast.

• Look for leverage in the reduction pile. With 1,145 active listings carrying a price cut this week, there’s real room to negotiate on inventory that’s already sitting.

• Rates ticked up again. 6.55%, a third straight weekly increase and the highest in nearly a year. Factor that into rate lock timing.

Seller Strategy

• Precision pricing is outperforming aspirational pricing. Nearly 9 in 10 as many listings saw a cut this week as came on new testing the top of the range is costing sellers time, not making them money.

• Don’t be discouraged by rising average DOM at the county level. Homes priced accurately are still closing in 8–12 days across multiple markets, including Ruxton and the fastest counties.

• Sold to list ratio remains a seller’s best friend. 101.2% average statewide rewards precision pricing, not high initial asks.

Investor Watch

• Baltimore City’s 111 closings at a 45 day median suggest a deep, liquid pool for rehab and rental conversion plays, without the extreme hold times seen in Dorchester or Garrett.

• 1,145 statewide price reductions means a wide net for motivated seller screening especially in Dorchester (117 day median) and Garrett (74 day median).

• Ruxton’s high end closings alongside its faster moving sub $1.3M tier show that even premium submarkets have quicker turn entry points for well capitalized buyers.

Local Economic Pulse

Mortgage rates extended their climb for a third straight week, with the 30 year fixed averaging 6.55% as of July 16, 2026 the highest level in almost a year, per Freddie Mac. The agency’s chief economist noted that purchase application demand has softened recently, even as improving affordability and rising inventory continue to modestly support the backdrop for buyers.

Zooming out: statewide June 2026 data from Maryland Realtors showed active inventory still running about 13% below year ago levels, with months of supply near 2.9 a landscape that continues to structurally favor sellers, even as this week’s price cut activity signals more give at the individual listing level.

The Friedman Take

Two weeks ago, Baltimore County was outperforming the state on almost everything. Last week, that edge nearly vanished as new listings surged. This week is the correction to the correction: statewide closings jumped 6.1%, Baltimore County closings jumped even harder at 22.8%, and the gap between new supply and completed sales narrowed by 61 homes. That’s a market absorbing its recent supply wave rather than drowning in it.

Two threads are still worth watching. First, mortgage rates are now three weeks into a climb, sitting at their highest point in nearly a year a real headwind on affordability if it continues. Second, price reductions running nearly as high as new listings tells us a meaningful share of sellers priced ambitiously coming out of spring and are now paying for it in time on market, even as overall prices keep climbing. The properties bucking that trend in Ruxton and in the fastest counties like Carroll and Calvert all share one thing: they were priced to sell from day one.

Buyers: This is a window to negotiate on already reduced inventory before rates climb further and erode what leverage you have.

Sellers: Precision pricing at launch is no longer optional it’s the difference between an 8 day close and joining the 1,145 listings already cutting price this week.

Investors: Baltimore City’s deep, still affordable closing volume and the statewide reduction pile both point toward the same opportunity patient capital targeting motivated sellers in slower moving pockets.

The market isn’t just reporting what happened it quietly hints at what’s coming next. Those who understand the signals early often make the best decisions.

📞 443-789-3101 | Kyle@Friedmanreteam.com
8115 Maple Lawn Blvd. #350 Fulton, MD 20759

Schedule a call

That tension is exactly what shows up when you set this week’s numbers next to last week’s. The week before, Baltimore County closed 198 homes against only 193 new listings closings actually outpaced new supply. This week, that flipped hard: 272 new listings against just 127 closed sales. In seven days, the county went from a market absorbing more than it added, to one adding far more than it absorbed. Homes priced right are still closing fast, but a lot more competition just walked in the door behind them.

I’ve been doing this long enough to know not to overreact to one week of data. But I’ve also learned not to ignore a shift this size. So let’s walk through what actually happened, and what it does and doesn’t mean for you

Full Interactive Report

Baltimore County At a Glance

Here’s where things stood this week:

• New Listings: 272 entered the market

• Homes Closed: 127 sales completed

• Listings vs. Closings: new supply outpaced closings by 145 homes

• Median Sold Price: $410,000

• Median Days on Market: 10 days

• Average Sold vs. List Price: 100.3% of final list price

• Median Sold vs. List Price: 100.0% of final list price

• 30 Year Mortgage Rate: 6.49%, up from 6.43% the week before

Week Over Week: How This Week Actually Compares

This is the section I want you to actually sit with, because the swing is bigger than it looks at first glance.

Metric | Last Week (6/29–7/5) | This Week (7/6–7/12) | Change

---------------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|------------------------------------

Baltimore County New Listings | 193 | 272 | +79 (+40.9%)

Baltimore County Closed Sales | 198 | 127 | -71 (-35.9%)

Listings vs. Closings | Closings led by 5 | Listings led by 145 | 150-home swing toward more supply

Median Sold Price | $387,500 | $410,000 | +$22,500 (+5.8%)

Median Days on Market | 9 days | 10 days | +1 day

Avg. Sold Price ÷ List Price | 100.6% | 100.3% | -0.3 points

Maryland Median Sold Price | $365,950 | $420,000 | +$54,050 (+14.8%)

Maryland Median Days on Market | 13 days | 12 days | -1 day

Maryland New-vs-Closed Gap | +59 | +673 | more than 11x wider

30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.43% | 6.49% | +0.06 points

15-Year Mortgage Rate | 5.79% | 5.82% | +0.03 points

A few things jump out here. Closed sales fell by more than a third in Baltimore County week over week, while new listings jumped over 40%. That’s the single biggest shift in this week’s data, and it’s the number I’ll be watching most closely one slow closing week can be noise, but if next week shows the same pattern, it’s a trend.

Median sold price actually rose nearly 6% in the county even as the market loosened, which tells me the properties that closed this week skewed toward higher price points not that values broadly jumped in seven days. Days on market crept up by just one day, which is a mild signal, not an alarming one. And statewide, the gap between new listings and closings didn’t just grow, it exploded more than eleven times wider than it was the week before. That’s a much bigger statement about Maryland as a whole than it is about Baltimore County specifically.

Baltimore County vs. Maryland Statewide

Metric | Baltimore County | Maryland Statewide

----------------------------------|------------------|--------------------

New Listings | 272 | 1,314

Closed Sales | 127 | 641

Listings minus Closings | +145 | +673

Absorption Rate (Closed ÷ New) | 46.7% | 48.8%

Median Sold Price | $410,000 | $420,000

Median Days on Market | 10 days | 12 days

Avg. Sold Price ÷ List Price | 100.3% | 100.5%

Median Sold Price ÷ List Price | 100.0% | 100.0%

Last week, Baltimore County beat the state on every measured dimension. This week, that edge nearly disappeared the state posted a slightly higher median price and a slightly better sold to list ratio. The one place the county still wins is speed: a 10 day median close versus the state’s 12. Given that both markets loosened at the same time, the more useful read is that this is a statewide shift in new listing volume, not something unique to Baltimore County.

This Week’s Spotlight: Highest and Lowest New Listings

At the top of the market, 658 Rock Cove Ln in Severna Park hit the market this week at $5,500,000. It’s a waterfront estate on the Severn River with 172 feet of water frontage, a private dock with an electric boat lift, 5 bedrooms, 5 full and 2 half bathrooms, and just under 7,000 finished square feet, built in 2003. For comparison, last week’s top new listing was an $18,000,000 waterfront estate in Edgewater so while this week’s luxury entry is still a serious property, it’s a noticeably quieter week at the very top of the market than last week’s headline grabbing number.

At the other end, 3029 Wylie Ave in Baltimore City’s Park Heights neighborhood listed this week at just $9,005. It’s a 3 bedroom, 1 bath end of row townhouse built in 1900, currently assessed at $5,000. Last week’s lowest listing was $20,000 in the same general part of the city this week’s entry point is less than half of that, continuing the same pattern of deep value, investor only inventory showing up at the bottom of the market week after week.

Together, this week’s two spotlighted listings span more than $5.49 million in asking price within the same statewide market a slightly narrower spread than last week’s roughly $18 million gap between its highest and lowest listings, driven mainly by this week’s quieter luxury end.

Mortgage Rate Update

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30 year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.49% for the week ending July 9, 2026, up from 6.43% the week before. That snaps the two week streak of declines we flagged in last week’s report, when the rate had just touched a seven week low. The 15 year fixed rate moved the same direction, rising to 5.82% from 5.79%.

Zooming out further, both rates remain meaningfully better than they were a year ago: the 30-year sat at 6.72% at this time last year, and the 15 year at 5.86%. So while rates reversed course and ticked up week-over-week, buyers today are still borrowing more cheaply than they were twelve months ago and the increase itself was small, just 6 basis points on the 30 year and 3 on the 15 year.

Buyer impact: a modest reversal after two straight weeks of improvement, but still a meaningfully better rate environment than buyers faced a year ago.

One Interesting Fact

Nationally, roughly one in three homes still goes through at least one price reduction before it sells. But 2026’s price cut rate has been running below 2025’s for most of the year sellers, on average, are pricing smarter from day one than they were last year. Our own local numbers echo that story: active listings across Maryland are carrying an average discount of only about 3.8% off original list price, even after sitting on the market for a median of 63 days. Sellers are cutting less than they used to, even when it takes longer to find a buyer, and even in a week where new supply jumped more than 40% in Baltimore County alone.

Market Pulse: Strengths and Signals to Watch

Signs of strength:

• Median home closed in just 10 days still two days faster than the state median, and only one day slower than last week’s 9 day median

• Median sold price rose to $410,000, up 5.8% from last week’s $387,500

• Baltimore County still edges the state on speed, even though last week’s across the board lead narrowed

• Investor activity stayed broad based, spanning listings from $9,005 to $5,500,000 statewide

Signs to watch:

• New listings (272) jumped 40.9% week over week, while closed sales (127) fell 35.9% over the same period

• Listings outpaced closings by 145 homes this week a 150 home swing from last week, when closings actually led by 5

• Statewide, the new listing to closing gap widened from 59 to 673 in a single week, more than eleven times larger

• Average sold to list ratio slipped slightly, from 100.6% last week to 100.3% this week

If next week shows another large jump in new listings without a rebound in closings, that would confirm a real inventory build rather than a one week blip.

What Buyers Should Know

This week’s jump in new listings up more than 40% from last week means real, immediate additional selection heading into the back half of summer. If this pattern holds over the next few weeks rather than reversing, buyers may find more room to negotiate, particularly on homes that don’t move in the first two weeks. Rates reversed slightly this week after two weeks of declines, so if you’re weighing whether to lock in now versus wait, factor that into your decision. Even with this week’s small uptick, today’s rates remain well below where they sat a year ago.

What Sellers Should Know

A 10 day median days on market is still a strong number just one day off last week’s pace. Homes priced correctly are still moving quickly. But the underlying supply picture changed meaningfully in a week: new listings up over 40%, closed sales down over 35%. That combination is worth your attention even though this week’s median price actually improved. Correct pricing from day one matters more, not less, as a noticeably larger wave of competing listings enters the market alongside yours than was true just seven days ago.

Investor Watch

Investors continue to find opportunity across a remarkably wide price band. This week’s Maryland market spanned everything from a $9,005 Baltimore City rowhome to a $5.5 million Severna Park waterfront estate a somewhat narrower range than last week’s $20,000 to $18,000,000 spread, mostly because last week had an outsized luxury listing. With new listings up sharply and closings down week over week, both in Baltimore County and statewide, investors targeting long days on market inventory, estate sales, and cosmetic rehabs may find a meaningfully larger pool to work with than they did last week.

Top targets right now: long days on market listings, cosmetic rehabs and fixer uppers, estate sales, distressed inventory, and underpriced rental properties.

The 180 Day Outlook

Looking past this week’s closings to what’s still sitting active on the market gives a useful read on where the next six months are headed. Across Maryland’s active listings, homes carry a median of 63 days on market already (average 80 days), and have been discounted roughly 3.8% on average from original list price down to current asking. Homes that have gone under contract but haven’t closed yet moved a bit faster a median of 43 days on market but were discounted more heavily along the way, roughly 5.0% off their original list price on average.

Put together, this points to a market splitting into two speeds, and this week’s numbers make that split more visible than last week’s did. One group of homes, priced right from the start, is still closing in the 9 to 10 day range we’ve now seen two weeks running. A second, larger group is sitting for two to three months, taking modest but real price cuts before finding a buyer or before falling under contract at all. With 272 new Baltimore County listings entering the market this week, well above last week’s 193, more homes than usual will be aging into that second group over the coming weeks unless they’re priced accurately out of the gate.

The Friedman Take

Last week’s report told a clean story: Baltimore County was outperforming the state on nearly every metric. This week complicates that story, and it’s worth saying so plainly. New listings jumped over 40% week over week while closings fell over 35%, flipping the county from a closings led market to a listings led one in a single week. The state saw the same shift, at an even larger scale. Baltimore County’s usual edge over Maryland narrowed to almost nothing on price and sold to list ratio, though it held onto its speed advantage.

Here’s the reassuring counterpoint, though: median sold price actually rose 5.8% week over week, days on market crept up by just one day, and sellers are still cutting prices less often than they did a year ago even as new supply floods in. That’s not a market in retreat it’s a market absorbing a genuine supply jump without a corresponding drop in what homes are actually worth.

The real test comes next week. If new listings keep climbing at this pace while closings stay soft, that’s a trend worth building strategy around. If this week was a one time catch up in listing volume, the tighter market we saw the week before could reassert itself just as quickly. Either way, I’ll be back here next week with the numbers, no spin either direction.

This week, at a glance:

• 272 new listings up 40.9% from last week’s 193

• 127 closed sales down 35.9% from last week’s 198

• $410,000 median sold price up 5.8% from last week’s $387,500

• 10 days median days on market up 1 day from last week’s 9

• 100.3% of final ask down slightly from last week’s 100.6%

• 6.49% mortgage rate up 6 basis points from last week’s 6.43%

• $5,500,000 top new listing well below last week’s $18,000,000 top listing

Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, the right information makes all the difference. If you want a personalized read on your own home’s value or want to talk through what this week’s shift means for your specific situation, I’m always happy to walk through it no obligation, just honest advice grounded in the actual local data.

Full Interactive Report

Search Homes

Check Your Home's Value

Kyle Friedman
Friedman Real Estate Team | eXp Realty

📞 443-789-3101
✉️ Kyle@FriedmanReTeam.com

8115 Maple Lawn Blvd., Suite 350
Fulton, MD 20759

Equal Housing Opportunity. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice.

You tell yourself the story we all tell ourselves: they got lucky. Wrong buyer walked in at the right time. Nothing I could’ve done differently.

Here’s what actually happened. That neighbor wasn’t lucky they were accurate.

This week in Baltimore County, the typical home that sold did it in just 10 days, at 100% of list price. No drama, no luck involved. But the average across the whole county is 24 days and the only reason that average is higher than the typical home’s 10-day timeline is everyone else: the 167 sellers this week who had to cut their price to get a deal done.

So there are really two stories happening on the same streets, in the same week. One seller lists at the number the market actually supports, gets a contract in a week and a half, and looks “lucky” to everyone watching. Another lists a little high understandably, it’s their home, it’s worth what it’s worth to them goes quiet for a few weeks, then drops the price and sells. Same market. Same buyers. Completely different experience, and it comes down to one decision made on day one: the list price.

If you’re thinking about selling, the takeaway isn’t complicated: your neighbor isn’t smarter than you, and they didn’t get a magic buyer. They just didn’t leave room for the market to humble them first. Get the number right on day one, and the “10-day, full-price, no-drama” story isn’t luck. It’s just what happens.

Search Homes

Check Your Home's Value

Read the Full Interactive Report

Baltimore County Is Pulling Back Its Share of the State But Still Outpacing It

Last week, Baltimore County was running a steady 20–24% share of every major statewide category new listings, pendings, closed sales a market moving in lockstep with the rest of Maryland.

This week, that share pulled back:

• Closed sales: 166 of Maryland’s 1,135 — 14.6%

• New active listings: 259 of Maryland’s 1,477 — 17.5%

• Price reductions: 167 of Maryland’s 1,109 — 15.1%

That’s not a sign of weakness in Baltimore County — it’s that the rest of the state, especially on price reductions, moved faster this week than the county did. The real headline is this: Maryland’s statewide average days on market sits at 50. Baltimore County’s is 24. Even with a smaller slice of total volume, this county is still moving at roughly twice the speed of the broader state market.

The $250,000 Number Nobody’s Touched Since Clinton Was President

Here’s a fact every long-time homeowner should know: the capital gains exclusion on a primary residence sale $250,000 for single filers, $500,000 for married couples hasn’t been adjusted since it was set in 1997. Back then, the median home price was roughly $129,000. Today it’s closer to $419,000.

That fixed, never-indexed cap is now estimated to be discouraging as many as 13.1 million homeowners nationally from selling, because a meaningful share would face a tax bill on appreciation the law never anticipated when it was written.

If you’ve owned your Baltimore County home for 15+ years in a neighborhood that’s appreciated well past that 1997 baseline, this is worth a conversation before you list. It’s not a deal-breaker it’s just a number worth running before you set a price.

This Week, By the Numbers

Mortgage rates ticked up slightly but remain well below year-ago levels:

| Loan Type | This Week | Last Week | One Year Ago |

| 30-Year Fixed | 6.49% | 6.47% | 6.77% |

| 15-Year Fixed | 5.84% | 5.81% | 5.89% |

Source: Freddie Mac PMMS, week ending 6/25/26

Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist noted rates have stayed relatively stable over the last six weeks, with purchase activity easing modestly while refinance activity continues to pick up borrowers responding to where rates already are, not waiting around for a big move.

Baltimore County vs. Maryland, week of 6/22–6/28:

| Metric | Baltimore County | Maryland |

|--------|-----------------:|----------:|

| Closed Sales | 166 | 1,135 |

| New Active Listings | 259 | 1,477 |

| Price Reductions | 167 | 1,109 |

| Avg. Days on Market | 24 | 50 |

Days on market took a sharp turn. Last week’s estimate had Baltimore County at 38 days. This week: 24. That’s a bigger single-week swing than seasonal drift alone would explain and it lines up almost exactly with this week’s spike in price reductions. Sellers adjusted. The market responded.

167 price reductions is a confirmed count this week, not an estimate and it’s running well above the 9–11% typical-rate range we’ve flagged in past weeks. This is the number worth watching into July: if reductions stay elevated while days on market stays low, that confirms a market correcting through price, not through a sudden burst of buyer demand.

The closed sales detail tells the real story underneath the averages. Across 211 closed transactions pulled this week:

| Metric | Original List | Current Price | DOM | Sold/List |

|--------|--------------:|--------------:|----:|----------:|

| Min | $90,000 | $73,000 | 0 | 75.5% |

| Max | $2,600,000 | $2,600,000 | 203 | 130.0% |

| Avg | $504,673 | $502,418 | 24 | 100.7% |

| Median | $389,000 | $395,000 | 10 | 100.0% |

The median sold-price-to-list-price ratio sitting at exactly 100.0%, paired with a median days-on-market of just 10, tells you what the averages alone hide: the typical Baltimore County listing this week sold at full price in a third of the time the average suggests. The properties dragging the average up to 24 days and 203 max DOM are the ones still working through a price correction proving the same point the neighbor story made above.

The Top and the Bottom of the Market

Highest-Priced Active Listing 230 Rock Lodge Rd, McHenry, MD $5,250,000

This one hit the market just two days ago, and it’s already doing what a correctly priced listing is supposed to do: not sitting. A brand-new (built 2023), 5-bed, 6.5-bath, 5,397-square-foot waterfront estate on Deep Creek Lake in Garrett County private deeded dock, 108 feet of water frontage, full lake access for boating, fishing, swimming, and watersports. At $972.76 a square foot, this isn’t a “comp” for anyone reading this in Baltimore County. It’s here because it’s the clearest possible illustration of this week’s theme at the highest end of the market: a brand-new, amenity-rich, correctly positioned property doesn’t need 100+ days to find a buyer. Two days in, zero price changes, and it’s already proving the same point as the 10-day median sale a few miles from your own front door price it right, and the market moves fast at every level.

Lowest-Priced Active Listing 13 Dudley St, Lonaconing, MD $19,900

Most people scroll right past a listing like this assuming it’s a typo or a scam. It isn’t. It’s a 3-bed, 1-bath, 1,800-square-foot home built in 1905 in Allegany County, just reduced again on 6/27 down from $29,900 to $19,900. At $11.06 a square foot, this is almost certainly a land-value or as-is teardown play, not a move-in-ready home. But it’s also a real-time example of the exact lesson at the top of this report: this seller didn’t sell at day one’s price. They waited, sat for nearly two months, and are now cutting for the second time. Whether it’s a $19,900 fixer or a $400,000 rowhome, the market doesn’t care what a seller thinks a property is worth on day one — it only responds to what a buyer is actually willing to pay, and the longer that gap stays open, the more reductions it takes to close it.

Neither of these is a Baltimore County comp both are statewide extremes included for contrast. But together they bookend everything else in this week’s report: at $19,900 or $5,250,000, pricing accuracy is what moves a listing. Luck has nothing to do with it.

This Week’s Bottom Line

• Days on market dropped but watch why. 24 days sounds like a strong seller’s market. It’s really a market correcting itself through price reductions, not a surge in buyer demand.

• Baltimore County’s statewide share shrank, but its speed didn’t. A smaller slice of Maryland’s total volume this week, still moving at less than half the statewide average days on market.

• 167 reductions is the number that matters most. Up sharply from last week’s estimate the clearest read yet on where pricing strategy needs to start, not where it can end up.

• The 1997 tax cap is quietly reshaping who lists. A capital gains exclusion frozen since the Clinton administration is now estimated to be keeping over 13 million homeowners nationally on the sidelines.

Real numbers. Real stories. That’s The Friedman Report.

Thinking about your next move? Whether you’re curious what your home is worth in today’s market or ready to start browsing what’s out there, I’m happy to help you make sense of it no obligation, just honest, local market expertise.

Search Homes

Check Your Home's Value

Kyle Friedman
Friedman Real Estate Team | eXp Realty

📞 443-789-3101
✉️ Kyle@FriedmanReTeam.com

8115 Maple Lawn Blvd., Suite 350
Fulton, MD 20759

Equal Housing Opportunity. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice.

Last week, a homeowner told me she was going to “wait until fall, when the market’s better.”

Here’s what I didn’t get to tell her in time: fall isn’t coming to save her. Right now, Baltimore County is sitting in a window most sellers don’t realize is closing inventory is still tight enough that well-priced homes are getting real attention, but it’s loosening every month. The buyers who are out there right now are motivated, pre-approved, and tired of losing out. The buyers who’ll be out there in October are pickier, because they’ll have more to choose from.

That’s the part nobody tells sellers: the best time to sell isn’t when the market feels perfect. It’s right before everyone else figures out it’s still good.

Every month a seller waits “for a better moment,” two things happen more competing inventory hits the market, and the pool of highly motivated buyers thins out. Days on market are creeping up slightly right now (38 days vs. the low-30s a few weeks ago), and that’s exactly the kind of quiet shift that turns into a real slowdown if sellers wait for “proof” before acting. By the time the data confirms it, the advantage is already gone.

If you’re sitting on a property and telling yourself you’ll list “when things settle down” things are about as settled as they’re going to get for a while. The sellers winning right now aren’t the ones with the lowest price. They’re the ones who moved while the window was still open.

Search Homes

Check Your Home's Value

Read the Full Interactive Report

Stop Waiting for the Rate Fairy

Every week, someone tells me they’re “waiting for rates to drop” before they buy. This week is the perfect example of why that’s the wrong strategy.

Rates fell five basis points this week. On a $400,000 loan, that’s a $12-a-month difference. Less than a Netflix subscription.

Meanwhile, that same buyer who waited for rates to move watched two other buyers make offers on the home they liked.

The real lesson: rates are not why people are buying or not buying right now. Confidence is. Inventory is. Timing your life around basis points is a losing game timing it around the right house at the right moment isn’t.

Not Every Deal Looks Like a Deal

A property just hit the market in Frostburg for $14,900. No, that’s not a typo.

It’s the kind of listing that makes people scroll past, assuming it’s a scam, or stop and wonder what’s really going on. In all likelihood, it’s a teardown or a land-value play the kind of property that scares off 95% of buyers and quietly makes the other 5% a lot of money, if they know what they’re looking at.

The takeaway for investors and house hackers: the most interesting opportunities in this market aren’t always the ones that look polished on the surface. Sometimes they’re the ones nobody else will touch.

Why the Top of the Market Matters to Everyone

Most Baltimore County buyers and sellers will never get near a $19.9 million estate in Chesapeake City. So why mention it?

Because the luxury tier sets the tone for confidence across the entire market. This particular property has sat active for 141 days and was just relisted a story about patience and pricing at the very top. Even at the highest end, the market rewards realistic pricing over wishful thinking. The same lesson applies whether you’re selling a $300,000 rowhome or a waterfront estate.

Now, the Numbers Behind the Stories

For the data-minded readers, here’s what’s actually driving the market this week.

Mortgage Rates

• 30-Year Fixed: 6.47% (down from 6.52% last week, down from 6.81% one year ago)

• 15-Year Fixed: 5.81% (down from 5.84% last week, down from 5.96% one year ago)

• Source: Freddie Mac PMMS, week ending 6/18/26

Freddie Mac points to resilient consumers, improving retail sales, and strengthening pending home sales a sign of modestly improving purchase demand. On June 17, the Fed voted unanimously to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Sales Volume Week of 6/15–6/21

Metric | Baltimore County | Maryland | Share of State

------------------------|------------------|-----------|---------------

Closed Sales | 145 | 649 | 22.3%

New Active Listings | 267 | 1,297 | 20.6%

Coming Soon Listings | 89 | 374 | 23.8%

Baltimore County is consistently running at 20–24% of statewide activity across every category a healthy, proportional share that shows the county isn’t lagging or overheating relative to the rest of Maryland.

Days on Market

• This week (Baltimore County): ~38 days

• Prior week (estimated): ~34–35 days (estimate based on the stated spring trend; not a raw MLS figure)

Still a seller-favorable number historically, but the drift from the low-30s toward 38 is the kind of quiet shift that doesn’t show up in price data yet it shows up in days on market first.

Price Reductions

Estimated raw counts weren’t available this week; based on typical Bright MLS regional reduction rates for mid/late June 2026 (roughly 9–11% of active inventory taking a cut weekly in this rate environment).

• Baltimore County (est.): ~28–32 price reductions

• Maryland (est.): ~125–140 price reductions

This is the one number worth nailing down precisely each week it’s often the earliest tell of where the market is really heading, ahead of median price moves.

Listing Extremes

Highest-Priced Active Listing: 1455 Cayots Corner Rd, Chesapeake City, MD 21915 $19,900,000. Active, Residential, 141 days on market, relisted 6/18/26 (previously expired).

Lowest-Priced Active Listing: 19813 Broad St, Frostburg, MD 21532 $14,900. Active, Residential, 2 days on market, listed new 6/16/26. Note: Frostburg is in Allegany County, not Baltimore County included here as a statewide extreme, not a local comp.

The Surprising Fact

On a $400,000 loan, this week’s rate decline to 6.47% saves a typical buyer only about $12 per month. Rate relief alone isn’t what’s driving the recent uptick in pending activity confidence and inventory dynamics are doing far more of the work than the rate itself.

Bottom line: Rates ticked down, but that’s not the headline. Baltimore County is holding a steady, proportional share of Maryland’s market. Days on market are creeping up a signal to watch, not panic over. And the real opportunities this week, as always, are in the details: a distressed lot in Frostburg, a luxury estate testing patience in Chesapeake City, and buyers everywhere quietly recalibrating what “normal” looks like.

Real numbers. Real stories. That’s The Friedman Report.

Ready to Make Your Next Move?

Thinking about selling?
Find out what your home is worth in today’s market with a free personalized home value estimate.

Thinking about buying?
Search every available home with real-time MLS updates and save your favorite properties.

→ Check Your Home’s Value
→ Search Homes

Search Homes

Check Your Home's Value

Kyle Friedman
Friedman Real Estate Team | eXp Realty

📞 443-789-3101
✉️ Kyle@FriedmanReTeam.com

8115 Maple Lawn Blvd., Suite 350
Fulton, MD 20759

Equal Housing Opportunity. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice.

But headlines lag. The actual numbers from June 8–14 tell a quieter, more interesting story one that smart buyers, sellers, and investors should be paying attention to before it shows up in next month’s median price data.

Here’s the breakdown.

Full Report Here

The Snapshot

Baltimore County closed 164 home sales last week, while 218 new listings hit the market. Zoom out to the state level and the pattern repeats almost exactly: Maryland closed 702 homes statewide against 1,121 new listings.

That gap matters. New listings outpaced closings by roughly a third, both locally and statewide. That’s not a crash signal it’s a supply signal. Inventory is quietly rebuilding for the first time in months.

A few other numbers worth knowing:

• Average days on market: around 38 days in Baltimore County still quick, but trending longer than earlier this spring

• Months of supply: roughly 2.1 months, which keeps the county firmly in seller-favored territory, just less extreme than it was a few weeks ago

• List-to-sale ratio: about 99.1%, meaning most homes are still selling close to asking price

Mortgage Rates Ticked Up Here’s Why

The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.52% for the week ending June 11, up slightly from 6.48% the week before. By midweek, daily rate trackers had it closer to 6.6%.

The cause isn’t really domestic economic strength it’s geopolitical. Rising oil prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East are feeding inflation expectations, and that’s the direct mechanism pushing borrowing costs back up. It’s a good reminder that mortgage rates don’t move in a vacuum; global events show up in your monthly payment faster than people expect

The Surprising Fact

Here’s the one that should make you pause: mortgage rates are nearly half a point lower than they were a year ago, yet homes in the broader Baltimore metro are taking longer to sell up to roughly 49 days on market, compared to 37 days a year ago.

That’s backwards from what you’d expect. Cheaper money should mean faster sales. Instead, it tells us buyer hesitation right now isn’t really about the rate level it’s about rate direction and a general sense of uncertainty. Buyers aren’t waiting for a better number. They’re waiting to feel steady again.

This Week’s Headline Listings

At the very top of the market, 2045 Maidstone Farm Rd in Annapolis just listed for $12,950,000 a 6-bedroom, 7-full/2-half-bath waterfront estate on the Chesapeake Bay, built in 2001, spanning nearly 11,700 square feet. Listings like this matter beyond the price tag they’re a confidence signal. Sellers don’t price waterfront estates at this level unless they believe high-net-worth buyers are still active, rate headlines or not.

At the complete other end, 2622 Lehman St in Baltimore City listed for just $10,000 a vacant rowhome shell built in 1900, with no working central air and no real livable condition. This isn’t a retail sale. It’s a rehab or land-banking play, and it’s a good reminder that Baltimore’s investor market never really sleeps, no matter what’s happening with rates or the headlines.

One week. One market. A $12.94 million spread between the two new listings. That tells you almost everything you need to know about how bifurcated this region has become.

Full Report Here

What This Means If You’re Buying

You actually have something you haven’t had in months: a little breathing room. With new listings outpacing closings, there’s more to choose from and less urgency to compete. Skip the bidding-war mindset on anything that’s been sitting more than a week or two that pressure has mostly evaporated. The $300K–$500K range is the sweet spot right now: still moving, but no longer moving at panic speed.

What This Means If You’re Selling

The window for aspirational pricing is narrowing not gone, but narrowing. Homes priced 3–5% over true market value are increasingly the ones that sit and then need a reduction. The fix isn’t to panic, it’s to price with precision: base your number on what the data says buyers are actually paying right now, not on what you hope someone might pay. Precision pricing is what’s still generating multiple offers on move-in-ready homes under $450K in strong school zones.

What This Means If You’re Investing

Keep your eye on the bottom of the market. Properties like the $10,000 Baltimore City shell are exactly the kind of entry point that’s fueled BRRRR and rehab strategies in this city for years. With 218 new listings landing in Baltimore County in a single week, there’s simply more inventory to sift through for deals than there was a month ago and rate-sensitive retail buyers are the ones most likely to pass on anything that needs real work, which is exactly where investor opportunity lives.

The Bottom Line

The market is still technically tilted toward sellers. But underneath that headline, supply is quietly rebuilding at the same moment rates are ticking back up and that combination is how seller’s markets soften, gradually, week by week. The people who notice this shift now, while everyone else is still reading last month’s headlines, are the ones who’ll be negotiating from a position of knowledge in 30 to 60 days.

The market is always telling a story. The advantage goes to whoever reads it first.

📞 443-789-3101 | Kyle@Friedmanreteam.com
8115 Maple Lawn Blvd. #350 Fulton, MD 20759

Schedule a call

Equal Housing Opportunity. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice.

Here’s what the numbers say, and more importantly, what they mean for buyers, sellers, and investors right now.

By the Numbers

The county’s Demand Index sits at 68 out of 100 firmly in “strong” territory. Active listings have crossed 1,041, the first time inventory has breached the 1,000-listing threshold since late 2024. Pending contracts came in at 135 for the week, producing a 43.3% weekly absorption rate one of the strongest spring readings the county has seen. The 30-year fixed rate dropped to 6.48% (Freddie Mac, June 4), the lowest reading since early spring. And the week’s most significant new listing landed at $4,585,000 a 1937 stone estate in Ruxton that set a new ceiling for the corridor.

Strong numbers. But context matters.

Two Markets, One County

The single most important thing to understand about Baltimore County right now is that it is not one market. It is two.

In the first market, well-priced detached homes in the right zip codes are generating multiple offers, going under contract in under 10 days, and closing at or above list price. A foreclosure this week drew 20+ competing offers and sold 13% over ask in 6 days. A luxury home at $1.5M sold with 3 competing offers in 5 days.

In the second market, aspirationally priced listings, condos, manufactured homes, and properties burdened by ground rent or deferred maintenance are sitting sometimes for months. Active inventory is up 16.9% year-over-year at the metro level. Condo sales are down 7.9% year-over-year, the county’s weakest segment. And 9.2% of active listings have taken at least one price reduction, up from roughly 7% just eight weeks ago.

The gap between these two realities is where opportunity lives for buyers who can read the data, and for sellers willing to be honest about which market they’re actually in.

What’s Driving the Shift

The macro headwind is real: Maryland has lost approximately 29,700 federal jobs between January 2025 and March 2026 the steepest contraction in modern state history. The state’s unemployment rate has risen from 3.6% in February 2025 to 4.3% in February 2026. That’s thousands of potential buyers removed from the qualified pool, particularly in areas with heavy federal commuter populations Fort Meade, SSA corridors, and the BWI suburbs.

Rate relief is arriving, but slowly. At 6.48%, a $363,000 purchase with 5% down carries approximately $2,255 per month in principal and interest requiring household income north of $90,000 to qualify. Fannie Mae forecasts rates reaching 6.3% by year-end. Every 25 basis points of improvement adds about $50 per month in purchasing power. Meaningful but not transformative.

The buyers still active in this market are making deliberate, specific decisions. That’s why execution matters more than ever.

Hottest Segments Right Now

The county’s strongest demand is concentrated in a few clear pockets:

Under $325,000 remains the most competitive price band fastest absorption, most showings per listing, and the most intense buyer competition. If you’re buying here, low offers won’t win deals and won’t win goodwill.

$325K–$475K single-family homes in Timonium, Cockeysville, and Perry Hall continue to see consistent multiple-offer activity for turnkey product. This is the engine of Baltimore County’s market.

$450K–$600K move-up inventory in Towson and Owings Mills is holding firm, supported by buyers with existing equity who can navigate the rate environment.

Condos and attached homes are the clear underperformers HOA fee sensitivity is shrinking the buyer pool, and it shows in the sales data.

Neighborhoods Worth Watching

Dundalk (21222) is the county’s best value play right now. Average home values around $136,900, with homes going pending in 6–10 days. The most affordable path to detached homeownership in Baltimore County.

Essex and Middle River (21221) are delivering 100–102% list-to-sale ratios week after week. Three-bedroom homes are renting for $1,800–$2,100 per month the county’s strongest cash flow potential for investors.

Lutherville-Timonium (21093) continues to be the county’s best mid-market performer. Average values around $372,200, DOM consistently under 14 days, driven by the Dulaney High School corridor the most sought-after school zone in the county.

Towson (21286) remains thin on inventory and competitive in the $380K–$450K band, supported by walkability, university proximity, and mid-county access.

Randallstown (21133) is a value zone to watch inventory is building but prices are holding at approximately $235,900, making it an underpriced opportunity for patient buyers and investors

This Week’s Headline Listings

The week’s most significant new entry is 900 Army Road, Baltimore, MD 21204 a 1937 stone estate in the Ruxton/Towson corridor listed at $4,585,000. Designed by architect Howard Frazier Baldwin, completely renovated in 2008, the property sits on 2.73 acres with 5,019 square feet above grade, 5 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, 5 fireplaces, a saltwater pool with two-story pool house, and a 4-car garage. At $913 per square foot, this is a legacy asset not a rate-sensitive transaction. Expect 2–4 very serious tours and a 90–180 day timeline to contract.

At the other end of the spectrum, 114 Roundup Road, Middle River, MD 21220 has been sitting at $39,999 for 322 days. A 3-bedroom manufactured home on ground rent of $1,114 per month more than any conventional lender will approve against a $39,999 asset. It tells Baltimore County’s structural story more clearly than any statistic: the most affordable home in the county is, paradoxically, its least financeable.

Strategy for Sellers

Baltimore County is still a seller’s market. But it is not the seller’s market of 2021 or 2022, and sellers who act like it is are making an expensive mistake.

The math on aspirational pricing is unambiguous. A home launched 5–10% above comparable sold data produces extended days on market, eventual price reductions, and a final sale price that often lands below what precision pricing would have achieved. A home launched at $389,000 and sitting 45 days typically closes at $362,000–$366,000. The same home launched at $369,900 often closes at $372,000–$378,000 with multiple offers in 7 days.

Precision pricing is not leaving money on the table. It is maximizing net proceeds.

Beyond price, three seller mistakes are costing listings right now: pricing “to negotiate” (buyers skip overpriced homes they don’t negotiate them), skipping professional photography (buyers review 20+ photos before requesting a tour), and launching on the wrong day. List Thursday. Not Tuesday or Wednesday. Thursday launches maximize weekend showing traffic, when 70%+ of offers are written.

Strategy for Buyers

The June window is open but it is narrowing. The $350K–$475K segment is showing the best negotiation potential right now, as rate sensitivity is keeping some buyers on the sidelines and creating mid-market opportunities that didn’t exist 18 months ago. Homes with 20+ days on market are statistically far more negotiable. And the Dundalk/Essex/Middle River corridor remains the county’s best entry-point value for buyers who also want cash flow optionality.

Don’t wait for rates to drop. At 6.48%, the market is fully functional. A decrease to 6.0% doesn’t save you if it brings 40% more competing buyers. The buy-now/refinance-later strategy remains valid for buyers who find the right property.

The Investor Opportunity

Investors are cautiously re-entering the sub-$280K tier, where rent-to-price math is improving. Essex, Dundalk, and Middle River are the most active entry markets. The auction pipeline is active 206+ properties in Baltimore metro distress pipeline. A foreclosure attracting 20+ offers this week confirms that quality distress still draws serious capital.

For investors, the federal workforce contraction is a variable to model, not a reason to sit out. Target healthcare-anchored and education-anchored neighborhoods: Johns Hopkins (~50,000 employees metro-wide), UMBC in Catonsville, McCormick & Company in Hunt Valley, and the growing cyber-defense corridor along I-95/Fort Meade. Avoid heavy federal commuter dependency corridors until the contraction stabilizes.

Looking Ahead

June is the best window of the year for sellers. Inventory will rise modestly through the month, and peak contract season continues through mid-June. July brings the summer slowdown listings that haven’t moved become highly negotiable, and buyer leverage expands. August and September are historically the county’s softest months. By Q4, with rates potentially reaching 6.0–6.3%, buyers sitting on the sidelines today become the competition surge of late 2026.

The sellers who act now, priced precisely, will win this market. The sellers who wait will compete against a larger inventory pool with fewer urgency-driven buyers.

The Friedman Report is published weekly by Kyle Friedman of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices PenFed Realty, covering Baltimore County and Carroll County real estate market intelligence. For a custom neighborhood breakdown, pricing strategy, or investment property analysis, reach Kyle directly.

📞 443-789-3101 | Kyle@Friedmanreteam.com
8115 Maple Lawn Blvd. #350 Fulton, MD 20759

Schedule a call

Equal Housing Opportunity. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice.



